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Aloysius

Ukraine: Who is on the right side?

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Personally, I'm of the view that if there are so many Pro-Russians, who see themselves as Russian (as seems to be the theme from what footage I've seen), then they should all hop off to Russia and leave the Ukraine to sort itself out.

 

Its telling that as soon as Ukraine starts to make some real progress, progress which is not in Russia's interest, Putin is so quick to move in. 

 

 

What does everyone else think? What else do you think will happen as this unfolds?

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I find the whole situation a little perplexing, to be honest, especially Putin's motivations and intentions. Perhaps someone familiar with Russian foreign policy could explain it to me but it just seems to me that Russia is grasping on to a by-gone era of imperialism.

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I find the whole situation a little perplexing, to be honest, especially Putin's motivations and intentions. Perhaps someone familiar with Russian foreign policy could explain it to me but it just seems to me that Russia is grasping on to a by-gone era of imperialism.

What you say is true but Russia is more than likely doing nothing but a little show to demonstrate that they will do as they please on there turf as we(US) do ours. Russia is not only thinking of the short-term but looking at the situation politically for the future. What Putin's intentions are; are very unclear and have everyone on edge to see. All UN can do is suggest what the right thing is to do without making a conflict of this.

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Hopefully, Putin will realise what's good for him. If not, I can only hope the President gets serious about the consequences. Right now, he's very wishy-washy on what we're doing.

 

Honestly, the world has no clue what Putin wants out of this. I think it's about his ego. He lost Kiev, so now he's making life miserable for the new government there. He may even want war as an excuse to annex most or all of Ukraine.

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Most of the Western world are suggesting severe political and financial sanctions for Russia's non-compliance. And as I said in the shoutbox, Canada indicated our displeasure with this situation by removing our ambassador, recommending Russia to withdraw, and legitimizing the interim Ukrainian government.

On a side note, as a result of their longstanding military agreement, Poland is mobilizing :)

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It's weird to think that the Winter Olympics were held only just over a week ago in Sochi. Things have changed pretty dramatically.

 

Yeah, it's almost as if Putin was waiting for the Olympics to end before he started mobilising troops.

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People are theorizing that he was using the Olympics as a distraction so he could make his move.

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QUXI0lx.jpg

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I find the whole situation a little perplexing, to be honest, especially Putin's motivations and intentions. Perhaps someone familiar with Russian foreign policy could explain it to me but it just seems to me that Russia is grasping on to a by-gone era of imperialism.

 

 

Hopefully, Putin will realise what's good for him. If not, I can only hope the President gets serious about the consequences. Right now, he's very wishy-washy on what we're doing.

 

Honestly, the world has no clue what Putin wants out of this. I think it's about his ego. He lost Kiev, so now he's making life miserable for the new government there. He may even want war as an excuse to annex most or all of Ukraine.

 

Putin wants sevastopol port

The Russians have to ask the Ukrainians for permission to use this port, they get a lease on it - they literally "rent" it.

This wasn't difficult with a pro-Russian president in Ukraine, however the Russians are very worried now, because there's been an uprising in Ukraine, and the pro-Russian president was turfed out, they may lose their lease on this port

If they lose the lease, they lose their power in the region. Putin is a very clever man, he knows that he can push a certain amount and there won't be any military repercussions - no one is going to risk a massive war - so in a way he's playing a game of bluff, he'll push forces into Crimea, take Sevastopol all for himself - it'll cost Russia money and international relations - but he obviously thinks that the gamble is worth it to control such a vital port

He doesn't have any strong opposition at home (running in opposition is "difficult" in Russia) and he pretty much runs the media - so he can convince the Russians at home, and those in the Ukraine that he is merely trying to protect them - this is something a lot of them believe

this is a hostile take-over, internationally it's condemned, but to Putin, that naval port permanently in the hands of Russia is worth it

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Putin is not doing this just for Stevastopol. While it is important to Russia, it isn't really all that important to him. It's too small a target. He wouldn't be doing this if he didn't think he could get control of Ukraine in its entirety, somehow.

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 Crimea is vastly important to Russia.  It is Russia's ONLY warm water naval port, it carries so much strategic value and losing it would be a serious blow to the Russia military.  entirety, somehow.

 

 

People are theorizing that he was using the Olympics as a distraction so he could make his move.

Very interesting i heard about that too.  On the other hand I also have heard from people that the US did not really want the Olympics in Russia so they were the ones behind the terror threats. Ahh gotta love conspiracy theories lol.

 

 Poland is mobilizing :)

  hehe :D

 

 

 all Putin is doing is portraying himself as a bad guy.  All of the excuses he is giving could easily have been solved through the UN or even if the russians brought it to the UN then they did what they are doing it would seem a tad bit more justified.  

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 all Putin is doing is portraying himself as a bad guy.  All of the excuses he is giving could easily have been solved through the UN or even if the russians brought it to the UN then they did what they are doing it would seem a tad bit more justified.  

 

One gets the feeling that he cares very little for international perceptions of him ...

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Here's a pretty good article giving reasons why Russia is doing it...http://www.fool.com/...of-ukraine.aspx

 

I found slide 18 to be quite interesting:
 

 

Put simply, without a naval base in Crimea, Russia is finished a global military power.

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In my own opinion based on what I've read, the Red Dragon is awakening. Every since the Soviet Union dissolved, which was basically their own fault for over-extending their power, Russia has seemed to be on a path to reclaim some of their glory. They've hung back on the world stage for what about 20 years now? Main reason being is they just didn't have the money to go against the Western Allies. So they've been relatively quiet and have been rebuilding. By contrast they are becoming the new America and the west has done to itself what the Soviets done to themselves years ago. Our military is spread very thin as are the rest of our allies. The Russians protected Snowden and we all know why they did of course, but apparently he knew enough that Putin doesn't see us as much of a threat. If they were to revert back to communism and bring in the Chinese and the Koreans the west would be in serious trouble. Most of our trade is dependent on China, almost all of our reserves are owed to them for loans the list is really endless. I honestly don't believe our current regime has the testicular fortitude to stand up to them like our previous presidents. They used to know that we were serious when we spoke, ehhh not so much anymore. That coupled with the American population disapproval of policies and over 1000 executive orders being issued is leading to a very interesting story. Stay tuned. Which side am I on though? Really hard to say, if I say Russia then I'll feel like a traitor, but they did play it pretty smart. So yeah, the Russians.

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It would be asinine for a country such as Russia to rely on the displeasure of the American people with their government to reinforce their hopeful beliefs that the western world won't do anything about it. From a psychosociological standpoint, American citizens would be up in arms against Russia regardless of how their feel towards their government; this is hugely due to the propagation from the western media.

 

Let's examine how the world is responding to Russia thusfar.

  • Russia has been excluded from the G8, which returns to the former G7.
  • The EU condemns Russia, legitimizes the Ukrainian government and calls for respect of Ukrainian territorial sovereignty.
  • Lithuania and Poland called for an examination of Article 4 of the NATO treaty.
  • The United Nations Security Council legitimizes the Ukrainian government and calls for respect of Ukrainian territorial sovereignty.
  • Australia, Canada, Bulgaria, China, Norway, Czech Republic, Estonia, France, Poland, Finland, Denmark, Germany, New Zealand, Georgia, Italy, Ireland, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Japan, Malta, Moldova, Spain, South Africa, Romania, UK, US, and Sweden legitimizes the Ukrainian government and calls for respect of Ukrainian territorial sovereignty.

I think it would be very unwise for Russia to continue with what they are doing at this point in time.

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In my own opinion based on what I've read, the Red Dragon is awakening. Every since the Soviet Union dissolved, which was basically their own fault for over-extending their power, Russia has seemed to be on a path to reclaim some of their glory. They've hung back on the world stage for what about 20 years now? Main reason being is they just didn't have the money to go against the Western Allies. So they've been relatively quiet and have been rebuilding. By contrast they are becoming the new America and the west has done to itself what the Soviets done to themselves years ago. Our military is spread very thin as are the rest of our allies. The Russians protected Snowden and we all know why they did of course, but apparently he knew enough that Putin doesn't see us as much of a threat. If they were to revert back to communism and bring in the Chinese and the Koreans the west would be in serious trouble. Most of our trade is dependent on China, almost all of our reserves are owed to them for loans the list is really endless. I honestly don't believe our current regime has the testicular fortitude to stand up to them like our previous presidents. They used to know that we were serious when we spoke, ehhh not so much anymore. That coupled with the American population disapproval of policies and over 1000 executive orders being issued is leading to a very interesting story. Stay tuned. Which side am I on though? Really hard to say, if I say Russia then I'll feel like a traitor, but they did play it pretty smart. So yeah, the Russians.

Despite Russia building up for 20 years, their military is still largely out-dated, specially their navy.

 

Also U.S. military isn't spread thin since we tons of allies:

Europe - NATO

Asia - Japan, South Korea, Philippines, India (not sure)

Australia   

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If there was ever a time to reboot the Red Alert series ...

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Here's a pretty good article giving reasons why Russia is doing it...http://www.fool.com/...of-ukraine.aspx

 

I found slide 18 to be quite interesting:
 

 

Put simply, without a naval base in Crimea, Russia is finished a global military power.

 

Russia certainly thinks this, but it simply isn't true. Sevastopol is a very good port, if you take it out of context. Otherwise, it is just a port in a lake (essentially). It would be like the US maintaining a fleet in one of the great lakes, it is pretty much useless. On a related note, Russia has two other ports on the Black Sea they can use, they just aren't as good, and they aren't in other countries (with US bases in many countries in Europe, I suspect Putin feels that he needs to do the same to maintain Russia's status as a superpower).

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Here's a pretty good article giving reasons why Russia is doing it...http://www.fool.com/...of-ukraine.aspx

 

I found slide 18 to be quite interesting:
 

 

Put simply, without a naval base in Crimea, Russia is finished a global military power.

 

Russia certainly thinks this, but it simply isn't true. Sevastopol is a very good port, if you take it out of context. Otherwise, it is just a port in a lake (essentially). It would be like the US maintaining a fleet in one of the great lakes, it is pretty much useless. On a related note, Russia has two other ports on the Black Sea they can use, they just aren't as good, and they aren't in other countries (with US bases in many countries in Europe, I suspect Putin feels that he needs to do the same to maintain Russia's status as a superpower).

 

but the Black sea is connected to the Mediterranean giving Russia access to global waters in winter. 

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If the Bosphorus and Dardenlles were just bits of water between land for anyone to sail through then that would be true, but they are bits of water between land, where both pieces of land are controlled by Turkey, a member of NATO, who has the right to refuse passage to any ship. If a war broke out with Russia, their ships would be stuck in there.

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Things are escalating again. There's a referendum in Crimea about rejoining Russia. A shooting war just became more likely.

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It was bound to happen, I also read today that the official line is: "Moscow does not command the troops without national insignia which have taken control of Crimea, besieging Ukrainian forces, and hence cannot order them back to bases." That is insulting :/

http://www.smh.com.au/world/crimea-votes-to-join-russia-as-us-moves-to-freeze-assets-20140306-hvggh.html#ixzz2vEb8FNUr

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They're saying that for their internal media, not the international. Their internal media narrative is far different from the one presented by the international media.

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Ah, interesting

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